The Points of No Return

Thepointsofnoreturn

And when the disaster becomes irreversible?

There is no off switch in the climate system. How far can we go?

Possible impossible futures

The tomorrow we choose

It's no longer possible to avoid the severe impacts of climate change. But the more we act, the less we'll suffer.

A 3°C World

Delayed and Uncoordinated Action

The Paris Agreement fails in the wake of the rise of the far right worldwide, and several countries have withdrawn from it. There is no increase in ambition in the targets, and their implementation is poorly executed. Although significant investments are still being made in renewable energy, this action is limited. Temperatures will exceed 1.5°C by 2030 and 3°C by 2100.

  • Dramatic increases in food prices due to droughts and heat waves that devastate agriculture leading to widespread hunger in countries of the Global South and in vulnerable communities in wealthy countries. Public security collapses in some countries.

  • Famine and droughts drive tens of millions of people to migrate, increasing the number and violence of armed conflicts.

  • Half of the Amazon rainforest dies, giving way to a type of impoverished savanna.

  • West Antarctic glaciers collapse, raising sea levels by several meters.

  • Island nations, condemned by rising oceans, migrate their populations to wealthy nations.

  • An international treaty to implement geoengineering technologies is proposed, but its approval at the UN is delayed; companies and countries decide to pursue "pirate" geoengineering schemes on their own.

2°C World

Decisive but Delayed Action

Global temperatures will exceed 2°C before mid-century, and given the impacts, the world is accelerating implementation of the Paris Agreement to return temperatures to 1.5°C by 2100. Decades of overshoot, consistently exceeding the temperature limit, are taking a heavy toll on human populations and ecosystems.

  • Coral reefs are disappearing in most tropical seas.

  • Parts of the Amazon are at risk of collapse; other ecosystems are disappearing, especially in the Mediterranean basin.

  • Increasingly frequent Category 5 hurricanes and cyclones are forcing populations to emigrate from affected regions in the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

  • More intense droughts are damaging agriculture, raising food prices, and exacerbating food insecurity.

  • Increasingly frequent Category 5 hurricanes and cyclones are forcing populations to emigrate from affected regions in the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

  • More intense droughts are damaging agriculture, raising food prices, and exacerbating food insecurity.

1,5°C World

Success of the Paris Agreement

Starting in 2025, the world will unite to increase and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, making rapid changes in infrastructure, agriculture, and transportation. Renewable energy replaces the fossil fuel industry, and greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere. Temperatures exceed 1.5°C in 2040, but return to 1.5°C by 2100. Mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, malnutrition, and infectious diseases is reduced through decisive action.

  • Beginning in the 2030s, summer sea ice melt opens a new shipping route in the Arctic, fueling conflicts between the US, Canada, Russia, and European countries.

  • Adaptation measures allow coastal communities to cope with increasingly severe and frequent flooding.

  • New agricultural cultivars adapted to heat and drought are being developed to curb rising food prices.

  • The Amazon rainforest is impacted by more frequent extreme droughts, but the end of deforestation and extensive forest restoration increase its resilience and limit vegetation collapse to a few regions.

  • Heat waves have become more intense and frequent, but adaptation measures and the reduction in energy prices caused by the spread of renewables make it possible to address them.

  • Mountain glaciers melt, ending winter sports in much of the world and raising sea levels. The Greenland ice sheet is slowly collapsing.